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GA Responds to My Criticism

GA doing something good

GA doing something good

You’re welcome Braves fans. Sometimes it just takes an angry blogger to bring out the best in a player. Garret Anderson let his offense do the talking last night with a pinch hit bomb that all but sealed the victory (a three run lead with Rafael Soriano coming in is as automatic as it gets). His season line of .287/.314/.426 is inching its way closer to league average production: .267/.343/.431 is LF average for the NL in 2009. He has a sparkling .866 OPS over the last 28 days. His line-drive percentage is the highest it’s been since 2004. His defense? Still horrible.

Kelly Johnson was placed on the DL today with a fake wrist injury. The Braves are just one of the many teams who make an absolute mockery of the disabled list. A few other players who’ve had fake injuries this year off the top of my head: Dontrelle Willis, Chien-Ming Wang, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and our very own Greg Norton. There really needs to be an “I’m not good at baseball” list.

That being said, I still think KJ will be a serious contributor to this team later this season. He’s cut his strikeout rate by 3% while maintaining the same walk rate. His line-drive percentage is still a very solid 19.5%, but yet he has an astronomically low BABIP of .238. Hitting that many line-drives and having a BABIP that low just doesn’t make sense at all. Hopefully he can get some consistent at-bats on his fake rehab stint and he can be back up soon after the all-star break.

Posted in News. Tagged with , .

By admin
July 3, 2009

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Anderson Continues to be a Worthless Bum

Pretty Typical Play for Garret

Pretty Typical Play for Garret

When we signed Garret Anderson this offseason to fill our “power-hitting outfielder” void, I was very disappointed. So far this season he has fallen short of my already low expectations. After watching him in person for the past 3 games, I am utterly disgusted by the way plays the game. Even as he continues to heat up (.308/.337/.462 in the past 28 days) I still wish we would cut this worthless bum. Unfortunately it doesn’t look like he’s going anywhere.

“He gets to balls,” Cox said. “He’s a glider. He glides so easy.” - link

His defense is absolutely atrocious. He’s currently rocking a -22.2 UZR/150 in LF, which is just indescribably bad. Adam Dunn, for the sake of comparison, has a -14.9 UZR/150 in LF this season. Manny Ramirez has a -16.8 UZR/150 this season. Garret Anderson has them all beat. It’s really a combination of not being very fast and giving absolutely zero effort on the field, which is an extremely dangerous combination.

Luckily for us, his lack of hustle isn’t just limited to his defense. I’ve never seen a player loaf his way around the bases the way GA does. Just two days ago against the Yankees, GA hit a soft fly ball into shallow center field. Garret, in his typical “I’m so apathetic towards everything I do” way, snailed his way down towards first. The ball, which probably should have been caught, dropped in front of Brett Gardner for a “single”. Of course any self-respecting baseball player would have been on second, but that’s not how Garret works. Did it end up costing us? No, the Braves followed with back to back doubles. Did it make me want to run onto the field and punch Garret in the face? Yes.

I just have absolutely no tolerance for players who don’t hustle. It is absolutely inexcusable to put out the kind of effort that he does on a nightly basis. All in all, Garret has been worth -2.9 million dollars so far this season according to fangraphs. Gregor Blanco plays a well above average LF while providing solid on-base skills. Matt Diaz is hitting .272/.348/.424 while playing better defense than GA. Josh Willingham is putting up a .900 OPS this season and can’t even find consistent at bats for the dreadful Nationals. All this being said, I’m still pretty much resigned to the fact that GA will be sucking it up in LF for the rest of the season.

Posted in Analysis. Tagged with .

By admin
June 27, 2009

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A Few Notes

Kris Medlen - where are you?

Kris Medlen - where are you?

That was a pretty disappointing loss last night in Baltimore. Peter Moylan and Eric O’Flaherty were really struggling out there. O’Flaherty was making his eighth appearance in 11 days, while Moylan was out there for the seventh time in 12 days. At least Rafael Soriano got the day off.

I just wonder where the heck Kris Medlen is. He’s made one appearance in the last two weeks. If he’s taking up a spot in our bullpen then he needs to be out there. I know Bobby probably doesn’t want to use him in high leverage situations this early in his career, but the result is that other relievers are being overworked. Moylan is clearly not the effective pitcher he was in 2007. He probably just needs more time to recover from his elbow injury. At some point, as Moylan is firing pitches to the backstop, you think Bobby might give Medlen a chance to take that primary 7th inning role.

Jeff Francoeur had a nice outfield assist last night, throwing out Melvin Mora at third base. He also has a batting average of .301 against LHP this season, which everyone knows is best way to measure a hitter’s value. Eighteen more days until I can say anything negative about Frenchie.

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By admin
June 14, 2009

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Greg Norton Needs to Go

As Greg Norton gets his first start of the year tonight for the Braves, I find myself wondering what he is still doing on a major league roster. He’s taking up a valuable roster spot that could be MUCH better used in a few other ways. Here’s a few reasons why he needs to go:

1) He is well below average defensively anywhere on the diamond. The only positions where he is tolerable are LF and 1B. He has no speed to speak of either. That means his only valuable asset is his bat…

2) He is hitting extremely poorly this year. So far, he’s hitting a robust .121/.326/.182 in 43 plate appearances. When your only valuable asset is your bat and you’re barely OPSing .500, that’s a problem.

There are definitely better options. We could just upgrade our “all-bat no-defense” player by DFAing Norton and calling up Barbaro Canizares from AAA Gwinnett. He’s hitting .341/.408/.534 in 250 PA’s so far this season. He’s already 29, so its not like he’s a big part of our future plans. He doesn’t need the regular at-bats like a young prospect would, so why shouldn’t we upgrade our bench? Added bonus: On our upcoming road trip we’re facing two AL teams, which means we could play Canizares at DH. This could also help us showcase him to potential AL trading partners looking for a full-time DH.

Another option would be to keep Gregor Blanco around. When Casey Kotchman is ready to return from the DL, Blanco may be on his way back to AAA. Instead, we could keep Blanco and DFA Norton. He is an EXTREME defensive upgrade at either corner outfield spot. In fact, I’m more than certain that Craig Monroe would have scored last night in the 11th if we had Garret Anderson “gliding” to the ball in LF as opposed to Blanco hustling. This would also give us a LH bat off the bench as well. If I had my choice, I would keep Blanco around.

Authors Note: I was at the game last Tuesday when we beat the Cubs in extras. Before Jeff Francoeur’s ninth inning AB, I told my friend that I wouldn’t say anything negative about Francoeur for a full month if he hit a game tying home run. Therefore, you won’t hear me say anything negative about Jeff until July 2nd.

Barbaro Canizares Minor League Stats

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By admin
June 9, 2009

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Nate Mclouth to Atlanta for Prospects

Excellent Plate Coverage

Excellent Plate Coverage

An unbelievable day of action for the Braves today. I’ll start with what every Braves fan is talking about: Brian Barton was called up to the bigs today. Just Kidding. Nate McLouth is on his way to Atlanta for a package of Gorkys Hernandez, Jeff Locke, and Charlie Morton.

Nate McLouth fills a huge number of needs for us. I wouldn’t call him a power hitter, but he might as well be Babe Ruth in our outfield. He hit 26 home runs last year, and led the NL with 46 doubles. His OBP has been right around .350 for the last few years, which means it’s fair to expect an OPS in the mid-to-low .800’s.

His defense is subject to a lot of debate. He is a “gold glove winner” from last year, even though Bill James’ fielding bible pegged him as the worst defensive CF in the league. It looks like his defense has improved this year. His UZR/150 is only -1.0 this year, which means he’s about league average. For comparison, Gregor Blanco’s UZR/150 was -3.8 last year.

His basestealing is exceptional. The most important thing to keep in mind is this: getting caught stealing has a much higher negative value than a successful stolen base has positive value. Therefore, to be an asset as a basestealer you need to maintain a relatively high success rate. In McLouth’s major league career he’s stolen 64 bases at an absurd 93% success rate. Look for Bobby to give him the green light a lot, especially since he’ll most likely be in the leadoff spot.

His contract is very club-friendly due to his lack of service time. He bought out his arbitration years during this past offseason, which gives the Braves cost certainty over the next few years. He’s signed for the next 3 years for a total of 15.75 million dollars, with a club option of 10.65 million for the fourth year (1.25 million buyout).

As for what we traded…
Gorkys Hernandez is the biggest piece we gave up. He’s hitting .316 in his first stint at AA as a 21 year old, which is very impressive. However, he’s only 10-18 in stolen base attempts and is (predictably) hitting for absolutely no power. He doesn’t really have any place in the braves OF in the foreseeable future, and most people figured he was trade bait anyway. Charlie Morton still has a chance to be a solid back of the rotation starter, but he probably didn’t have a spot in Atlanta due to better options. Jeff Locke is a high-upside southpaw in high A, but he is struggling this year. He has a 5.56 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 10 games this season.

Verdict:
This is a great trade for the Braves. We gave up three players that we could clearly afford to part with, and we DRASTICALLY improved the major league team for the next three years. The best part about the deal is that we maintain a lot of flexibility. McLouth will play CF for now. If Schafer plays well in AAA, the Braves will be presented with a good problem. McLouth can play RF if Francoeur continues to struggle, or LF when Garret Anderson leaves after this season.

Nate McLouth Baseball Reference
Nate McLouth Fangraphs

Posted in Analysis, Trade Rumors. Tagged with , , , .

By admin
June 3, 2009

3 comments

Three OF Additions That Could Happen

The Braves OF has been predictably terrible again this season, and it sounds like FW is looking to make a change. Several writers have suggested that FW is quietly shopping Jeff Francoeur to ballclubs looking for a bit of a reclamation project. My guess is that we are looking to shed Francoeur’s 3.375 million dollar salary for a prospect or two so that we could take on salary in a separate trade for a decent outfielder.

The two most important things to consider when thinking about potential trade targets for the Braves are as follows:

1. Would the other team consider trading that player?
2. Could the Braves find a way to take on their contract?

That eliminates a lot of players I read fans writing about in the comments section of different blogs (looking at Carlos Lee, Magglio Ordonez, Grady Sizemore, etc.). That being said, here are three options that I think would be a great fit in Atlanta:

Luke Scott - 2009 salary = 2.4 million
The Orioles are at least one year away from competing, and could be looking to acquire prospects very soon. Nick Markakis and Adam Jones are knocking the cover off the ball, and Nolan Reimold was just called up after crushing the ball in AAA. They also have Felix Pie, who is, at worst, a tremendous defensive OF. Aubrey Huff switches between 1B and DH, which means Luke Scott has trouble finding consistent playing time.

Although he’s already 31 years old, Scott only has 2.144 years of service time (he’s under team control for 3 more seasons after ‘09). He has a career line of .269/.356/.499, including .303/.384/.515 in 112 plate appearances this season. He played an above-average LF last season for the Orioles and played an above-average RF for the Astros in ‘07.

Josh Willingham - 2009 salary = 2.95 million
Here’s another OF who struggles to find playing time. Between Adam Dunn, Nick Johnson (who prevents Dunn from playing 1B), Elijah Dukes, Austin Kearns, and Willie Harris, the Nationals have a limited number of starting spots with way too many decent players. Not to mention Lastings Milledge, who is currently sulking away in AAA. The result is that the Nationals may look to trade a few of these players. Nats GM Mike Rizzo even named Willingham (among others) when asked about players they make look to trade during the season.

Willingham has one more year of service time than Scott, which means that he’s under control for two more seasons after ‘09. He has a career line of .263/.360/.472. Although his batting average is down this season, his OPS is just below his career average at .820. His back has given him problems in his past, but hasn’t caused him to miss any time this season. He’s roughly average in LF and has never played RF before in the majors.

Brad Hawpe 2009 salary = 5.5 million
Ken Rosenthal suggested a few days ago that the Rockies could be heading towards a selloff. In his words:

Right fielder Brad Hawpe likely would bring the highest return, and the Rockies are deep enough in outfielders to consider such a move. Dexter Fowler, Ryan Spilborghs, Seth Smith and Matt Murton are on the current roster, and Carlos Gonzalez is at Class AAA.

Hawpe, signed for $5.5 million this season and $7.5 million next season with a $10 million club option for 2011, would be perfect for a team such as the Rays. He can void his option if he is traded and become a free agent after next season.

That means he would only definitely be under team control for one more season after ‘09. He provides more offensive production than the previous two options. His career line is .286/.377/.500. Surprisingly, Coors Field doesn’t have that much of an effect on his hitting. His career OPS away from Coors is only 30 points lower than his home OPS. The biggest issue with Hawpe is his defense, which is consistently atrocious. Here are his UZR/150’s for the last 3 years (a UZR/150 of 0 would be average):
2009: -18.6
2008: -46.6
2007: -27.2

Conclusion
The Braves chance to make the postseason hinges on increased production from the OF. These outfielders I’ve mentioned wouldn’t take elite prospects to acquire, and would drastically improve our team. Hopefully we can make a move sooner rather than later.

Posted in News, Trade Rumors. Tagged with , , .

By admin
May 28, 2009

12 comments

Kris Medlen

Welcome To The Show

Welcome To The Show

Kris Medlen gets the call from up from AAA Gwinett to make the start for Atlanta this Thursday against the Rockies. He’ll mercifully replace Jo-Jo Reyes in the rotation, who had a 6.58 ERA in 26 major league innings this season.

Medlen went to a Junior College near Anaheim called Santa Ana College. He would play SS for most of the game and then take the mound late to close out ballgames. Despite hitting .332/.428/.566 in college, most scouts preferred him as a pitcher. The Braves took him in the 10th round of the 2006 draft. He pitched exclusively in relief for the first two a half years in the Braves system before moving to the starting rotation.

Last year in AA Medlen had a 3.52 ERA and 1.23 WHIP between starting and relieving. This year he has pitched almost exclusively as a starter and has torched AAA hitters: 37.2 IP, 1.19 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 44 K’s, 10 BB’s. This is what Kevin Goldstein had to say this past offseason when he discussed Atlanta’s top 11 prospects:

11. Kris Medlen, RHP

The Good: Medlen pounds the strike zone with an effective three-pitch mix. His fastball is above average at 90-92 mph and can touch 94, and he locates it extremely well. His best pitch is a hard-breaking overhand curve, and he also mixes in a solid changeup. He’s a fantastic athlete who can field his position, has an excellent pickoff move, and went 8-for-26 at the plate this year with two doubles, a triple, and a home run.

The Bad: It is hard to get past Medlen’s size, as he’s both short and a bit frail. That frame, combined with a delivery that requires significant effort, leaves some to wonder if he could hold up for 30-plus big-league starts each year. His fastball can be a little too true at times.

That small frame is the one big knock on Medlen. It makes some scouts wonder if he can hold up for a whole season of starting. It also means that he isn’t projectable, which means he won’t be adding any velocity on his fastball down the road. When you look at his great minor league numbers and remember his small frame, it makes sense that his PECOTA #2 most comparable player is Roy Oswalt.

The only other thing that jumps out at me is that he’s a bit of a fly ball pitcher. So far this season he’s had a .83 GB/FB ratio. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing, just something to keep an eye on. One thing I’ll definitely be keeping my eye on is Medlen at the dish. Can he play LF? We could definitely use that switch-hitting bat in our lineup.

Kris Medlen’s Minor League Stats

Posted in Prospects. Tagged with .

By admin
May 19, 2009

3 comments

Jordan Schafer With The Golden Sombrero

Remember a few weeks ago when I was talking about how good Jordan Schafer and Kelly Johnson were? I must have jinxed them.

Jordan Schafer:
He strikes out A LOT. He leads the NL in strikeouts with 38 in 88 AB’s. That’s 43% of all of his at bats! If he couldn’t take a walk (which he does quite well), he would be absolutely brutal at the plate. He had the dubious distinction of achieving the Golden Sombrero tonight. From wikipedia:

In baseball, the golden sombrero is a slang term used to describe a player’s inglorious feat of striking out four times in a single game. The term derives from “hat trick” and since four is bigger than three, the rationale was that a four-strikeout performance should be referred to by a bigger hat, such as a sombrero.

We all know that Schafer can be much better than this. I think that we just need to commit to being patient with him. He can work out his hitting struggles at the bottom of the order while still drawing walks and playing good defense. His defense has looked rough at times, but he still covers good ground and his routes should improve over time.

Kelly Johnson:
Kelly, are you even a starting 2nd Basemen anymore? I haven’t read anything about KJ being moved to a permanent platoon situation, but he really hasn’t been playing much recently. He’s only started in 2 of our last 8 games. It really doesn’t help that he is smack dab in the middle of a typical Kelly Johnson slump. Here are some stats that I’ll shamelessly steal from DOB’s blog: 6-for-47 (.128) with one extra-base hit, two RBI and a .241 OBP in his past 14 games, with no steals and three double plays grounded into in that span. Hopefully this slump will end sooner rather than later.

The good news is that the Braves broke through with their first win over the Marlins tonight. It just took former Miami (OH) pitcher Graham Taylor of the Marlins to help wake up those Braves bats. I’m glad the Redhawks could help.

Posted in News. Tagged with , , .

By admin
May 6, 2009

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